According to the U.S. Geological Survey, there's going to be a 6.7 magnitude or greater earthquake in California before 2037.
No shit, sherlock!
California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong earthquake by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide temblor forecast.Being in a 6.0 or higher earthquake is an experience like no other. It seems there was a lot more seismic activity when I first moved there in 1985. I remember several 6+ within those first couple of years.
New calculations reveal there is a 99.7% chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97% versus 93%.
"It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.
The 1994 Northridge earthquake under Los Angeles' San Fernando Valley was magnitude 6.7. It killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25B in damage in the metropolitan area.
—SNIP—
Researchers also calculated the statewide probabilities for larger temblors over the same time period. Among their findings: There is a 94% chance of a magnitude 7 shock or larger; a 46% chance of a magnitude 7.5 and a 4.5% chance of a magnitude 8. The odds are higher that a magnitude 7.5 quake will hit Southern California than Northern California — 37% versus 15%.
Of all the faults in the state, the southern San Andreas, which runs from Parkfield in central California southeast to the Salton Sea, appears most primed to break, scientists found. There is a 59% chance in the next three decades that a Northridge-size quake will occur on the fault compared to 21% for the northern section.
The northern San Andreas produced the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, but the southernmost segment has not popped in more than three centuries.
The most eerie occurred during rush hour traffic on a workday. I was listening to the radio and sitting at a traffic light on my way to work. The radio personalities started to describe how they were having a large earthquake. It was weird because they were broadcasting from Burbank, about 50 miles north of where I was, and by the time I put together what was going on, the quake had made its way to me.
The car started hopping up and down like one of those low riders from East L.A. Everyone sitting at the light with me looked around at each other to confirm we weren't crazy, and then we all started laughing when the shaking stopped. Classic California experience.
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4 comments:
I have a thing for natural disasters. I sorta want to experience an earthquake just once... so I know what it feels like. The utter helplessness because you can't escape from the shaking ground.
I lived in Los Angeles from 98-04 and experienced a total of three. I don't think any of them were over a 5. My first was the rolly-wavy kind and was kind of fun. The last two were the sudden jerky kind that freaked me out a little bit, but they were over so fast.
My cat at the time was never bothered by them and would just wake up with that "been through it before, I bet that was a 5" look on his face and then go right back to sleep.
cb--You might be disappointed because you don't have time to think about being helpless since they only last about 15 to 30 seconds. In that time, the first 10 seconds is identifying that it is indeed an earthquake, and then you run for a doorway to protect yourself. By that time, its probably over. In severe cases, that's when the trouble begins with gas leaks, fires, liquefaction, etc...but the shaking has stopped.
On a separate occasion, I was working in phone support and was helping a customer on the phone. When the shaking started, I put the customer on hold, then went to get under my desk because the tiles on a suspended ceiling can pop out and fall. On my way down, I smashed my forehead right on the desk. Ouch!
jeremy--You bring up a great side note here.
If you're from California, you will probably have two reactions to an earthquake:
1. You analyze if it was a rolling quake (as in my post since it rolled from Burbank to Irvine) or a jolt. And then everyone becomes an expert guessing the magnitude and location. If you are real expert, you might speculate that it was a fore-shock and when the "real one" is going to hit!
2. You get all smug and look down your nose at those that make a big deal about it. You are SO over earthquakes.
And my husband wonders why I have refused to move to California..
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