Y|O|Y The Prognosticator

I've held off on an election recap because Missouri was still up in the air. The Show Me state finally went to McCain, making it only the second time in over a century that Missouri did not choose the winner. (Since 1904, they only missed in 1956.)

First, let me get to my prognostication that was correct. Back in 2004, after Barack Obama gave his speech to the Democratic Party convention, I turned to my ex and said, "He's going to be our first black president." I was right, but I had no idea it would be so soon. As it happens, I think a lot of people felt the same way I did that night.

My National Presidential Pre-Election Prediction
Now, on to the results where my predictions weren't nearly as good. Before the election, I predicted Obama/Biden 286; McCain/Palin 252 as the electoral totals according to the following map.


The National Presidential Election Results
The results were much more dramatic in Obama's favor, Obama/Biden 365; McCain/Palin 173, since he nearly swept the battleground states including Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, and Nevada. As we've just seen, McCain held on to Missouri and Obama managed to peel away an electoral vote in the 2nd Congressional District (Omaha) in Nebraska.


New York State Presidential Election Results
Here's how things shook out in the Empire State. In general, New York City usually goes heavily to the Democrats and "upstate" (everything north of New York City) goes Republican. You can see that Obama took the larger metropolitan areas of Albany-Schenectady-Troy, Buffalo, Syracuse, and Rochester.

The colors make it seem that the State was close to 50/50 but the state went heavily for Obama by 62%-37%. Rensselaer County (the blue county to the east of Albany on the map), where I am, went 53%-45% Obama. Most of the red in the northern portion of the map is the sparsely populated Adirondack Mountains region (the "North Country"), and the red in the south central is the apple/wine growing areas along the Pennsylvania border (the "Southern Tier").

Obama Notches A NH Landslide!

I just spotted this over at The Bum who found it at CNN:

Dixville Notch has spoken: It's Obama in a landslide

DIXVILLE NOTCH, New Hampshire (CNN) -- Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama emerged victorious in the first election returns of the 2008 presidential race, winning 15 of 21 votes cast in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.

People in the village in New Hampshire's northeast corner voted just after midnight Tuesday.

It was the first time since 1968 that the village leaned Democratic in an election.

Obama's rival, Republican John McCain, won 6 votes.

A full 100 percent of registered voters in the village cast ballots. And the votes didn't take long to tally.

Is this a sign of things to come today?

The Beaverhausen Chronicles: Redistribution Of Wealth

This, hopefully, will be my last post ever in the Beaverhausen Chronicles series.

Sometimes I sit and seethe when I watch the candidates giving their stump speeches. Over the past week, the McCain/Palin Muttley/Beaverhausen campaign used the "distribution of wealth" talking point to capture the votes of independents.

Yet, they don't seem to see their hypocrisy. Or do they, but they know that most Americans are sheep and believe what people tell them rather than thinking for themselves?

• The GOP tax cuts reduced the tax rates for those earning the most — shifting more of the tax burden to lower income ranges. Isn't that a redistribution of wealth?
• The GOP champions tax credits for oil companies while these same companies are reporting the highest quarterly profits in history. Isn't that a redistribution of wealth?
• The $700B financial rescue plan, which takes working-class contributed tax money from the federal government and bails out the investor class. Isn't that a redistribution of wealth?
• Alaska takes way more from the federal government than it pays. Isn't that a redistribution of wealth?
• Alaska has a windfall profits type tax on the oil companies that is passed on to residents. Isn't that a redistribution of wealth?

I am so ready for this whole thing to be over.

McCain, And Obama, Are Amazing

This report made me think of the grueling schedules that McCain and Obama have been keeping for the past weeks, months, years.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Sunday he is suffering from exhaustion and two allies said he was suffering under the strain of his job, in a rare disclosure apparently designed to combat rumors the hardline leader is more seriously ill.

Regardless of my distaste for McCain's policies, ya gotta give the 72-year-old guy some credit.

Alaskans For Obama

The Anchorage Daily News, Alaska's largest newspaper, endorsed Barack Obama after declaring Gov. Sarah Palin "too risky" to be one step away from the Oval Office.

In This Sue Crazy World

From the "Clog Up The Courts" files:

The teachers' union for the nation's largest public school system accused the city on Friday of banning political campaign buttons and sued to reverse the policy, declaring that free speech rights were violated.

Weingarten said schools Chancellor Joel Klein urged principals more than two weeks ago to enforce a Department of Education policy requiring complete political neutrality.

In New York, the UFT's lawsuit included a copy of a letter it received from the schools. It urged enforcement of a regulation restricting political activity in school buildings, saying it was necessary "in light of the upcoming presidential election."

Weingarten said teachers should have a right to express their political views, just like anyone else. Suppressing political expression sends the wrong educational message, she argued.

"Students can only benefit from being exposed to and engaged in a dialogue about current events, civic responsibilities and the political process," Weingarten said.

The UFT lists a membership of about 200,000, including 74,000 teachers. The city's public schools have about 1.1 million students.

I fail to see how this policy suppresses anyone's first amendment rights. What you do on the job is the responsibility of your employer, not you. You can do as you see fit on your time. No one has said that you cannot support a given candidate on your time because you are a teacher as your vocation. That would be suppressing political freedom.

Children, who are in school in a role that is forced to be subordinate to the teacher, should not be subjected to the political leanings of their teacher. Saying that it creates "discussion" is disingenuous when you are pitting an adult teacher's debating skills and opinions against a student. Can you imagine if Ann Coulter was your child's history teacher?

There are plenty of ways for children, and their parents, to get involved in the political process outside of school as they see fit. Encouraging them to do so, I think, would be in the realm of a teacher's responsibilities, but not for a specific candidate.

You shouldn't have the right to pray in school, nor preach in school.

Local Ballots Go Out With "Barack Osama"

From the Albany Times Union:

Some are calling it a Freudian slip. Everyone’s calling it a big mistake.

Hundreds of absentee ballots sent to voters in New York State’s Rensselaer County, near Albany, were printed with Barack Obama’s last name spelled as “Osama," the Albany Times Union reports.

County elections officials tell the newspaper that it was a typo that made it by three rounds of proof-readers. They also said the error affected just a few hundred voters, and that they will re-send corrected ballots on request.

Yep, that's my neck o' the woods.

The Single Take Away From The Latest Debate

Because it's easier to believe that someone is a secret radical Islamic terrorist if you continuously hammer that they're less than human. Subtle and not-so-subtle cues like calling someone "that one" ... not even "him" which would at least be a human pronoun. It reeks of the 1930's.

H/T to Joe.My.God for the graphic.

The Beaverhausen Chronicles: Magic 8 Ball

From a commenter on Political Wire:

You betcha'!...I've come to think of Palin Anastasia Beaverhausen as a human "Magic 8 Ball." Shake the noggin and just wait to see what canned sound-bite pops to the surface, in no particular order or even response to the question.

I spotted this before the debate but it still holds true. The answer is, "Betcherass, Bubba"! [Wink.]

The Beaverhausen Chronicles: How To Win A Debate

They're already laying the groundwork for Friday's spin on the vice presidential debates:

Hours ahead of the vice presidential debate, Sen. John McCain Muttley criticized the selection of PBS's Gwen Ifill as moderator because she is writing a book called The Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama.

“Frankly, I wish they had picked a moderator that isn’t writing a book favorable to Barack Obama — let's face it," McCain Muttley said on Fox & Friends. "But I have to have confidence that Gwen Ifill will handle this as the professional journalist that she is. ...

"Life isn’t fair, as I mentioned earlier in the program."

Ifill is moderator and managing editor of Washington Week and senior correspondent of The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer. She is viewed as one of Washington's fairest journalists.

The propriety of her selection as moderator for tonight's debate between Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin Anastasia Beaverhausen and Sen. Joe Biden was questioned by conservatives after the Drudge Report drew attention to her book, to be published in January.

McCain took a different tack the day before, telling Fox News in another interview: "I think that Gwen Ifill is a professional, and I think that she will do a totally objective job because she is a highly respected professional. Does this help that if she has written a book that is favorable to Senator Obama? Probably not, but I have confidence that Gwen Ifill will do a professional job. And I have that confidence.

Here's how the spin unwinds. If Beaverhausen does well, it's because she's qualified, brilliant, a maverick, and ready to lead. If she does poorly, it's because the mainstream media is out to get her.

See how easy it is to put lipstick on a pig?

The Beaverhausen Chronicles: Foreign Policy

I just spotted this reader comment over on Rosie O'Donnell's site:

"If I can see the moon from my backyard, does that make me an astronaut?"

A great retort to the whole "I can see Russia from my house so I've got more international experience than Obama" argument.

The Beaverhausen Chronicles: Scary Russians

[Image via Boing Boing via Andrew Sullivan via Joe.My.God.]

Tina Fey Back On SNL

"Katie, I'd like to use one of my life lines."

The Beaverhausen Chronicles: Resumes

I found this over at roblog (I modified it a bit):

We have two leadership teams to choose from, which would you hire?

FORMAL EDUCATION [1]

Barack Obama
• Occidental College, 2 years
• Columbia University - B.A. Political Science with a Specialization in International Relations
• Harvard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna Cum Laude

Joe Biden
• University of Delaware - B.A. in history and B.A. in political science
• Syracuse University College of Law - Juris Doctor (J.D.)

Muttley John McCain
• United States Naval Academy

Anastasia Beaverhausen Sarah Palin
• Hawaii Pacific University, 1 semester
• North Idaho College, 1 year
• University of Idaho, 1 year
• Matanuska-Susitna College, 1 semester
• University of Idaho, 1.5 years - B.S. in Journalism

EXPERIENCE [2]

Barack Obama

Obama, 47, has been a U.S. Senator for Illinois for the past four years. Prior to that, he was a state senator for eight years, from 1996 to 2004. He also was a civil rights attorney for four years full time, and he practiced law part time during the eight years he was in the state legislature.

Obama also taught law school part-time and wrote a couple of best-selling books. Right after college, Obama spent three years working as a community organizer.

Community organizer: Three years.

Professional/legal experience: Four years full-time and eight years part-time.

Teaching experience: 11 years part-time.

State legislative experience: Eight years.

Federal legislative experience: Four years.

Joe Biden

Biden, 65, was elected to the U.S. Senate representing Delaware at the young age of 29. He was not old enough to hold the office on Election Day, but he turned 30 before it was time to take the oath of office. This means Biden has been a U.S. senator for close to 36 years.

Prior to his service in the Senate, Biden was a member of the New Castle County Council for two years, and he was an attorney in private practice for four years.

Professional/legal experience: Four years.

County government experience: Two years.

Federal legislative experience: 36 years.

Muttley John McCain

McCain, 72, has been a U.S. senator from Arizona since 1986, for a total of 22 years. Prior to that, he served in the U.S. Congress for four years, from 1982 to 1986. He also served for 22 years in the U.S. Navy.

Federal legislative experience: 26 years.

Military experience: 22 years.

Anastasia Beaverhausen Sarah Palin

Palin, 44, was elected governor of Alaska in 2006 and will have served two years by the end of 2008. Prior to that, Palin was the mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, for six years, from 1996 to 2002. She was on the city council for four years before that.

When she was in her 20s, Palin spent about two years as a TV sports reporter from 1987 to 1989. She has also been part-time small business owner with her husband while she held office in Wasilla. The Palins had a commercial fishing operation and a snow machine, watercraft, and all-terrain vehicle business.

Reporter: Two years.

Small business co-owner: Nine years, part-time.

Municipal legislative experience: Four years.

Municipal executive experience: Six years.

State executive experience: Two years.

CONCLUSION

In the business world, you would hire the more educated, knowledgeable and experienced of the two teams. But in the political world, being highly educated and knowledgeable results in right-wing ideologues branding you as an elitist.

[1] Wikipedia Obama, Wikipedia Biden, Wikipedia McCain, Wikipedia Palin

[2] Politifact.com Truth-o-Meter

Whenever I hear people say that Palin is more qualified than Obama to lead the country, I just want to scream.

I keep hearing women say that she's qualified because she's such a great mother. Being the parent of five children, while admirable and something I'm not sure I could do myself, does not qualify you to be the president of the U.S. It means you're fertile and don't use birth control. Ummm, like your daughter. (Meow!)

How many people in your life have a lot of children? Would you consider them presidency-ready because of it?

Letterman Trashes Muttley

I found this clip over at Joe.My.God.

John McCain Muttley canceled his appearance on Letterman, personally phoning Dave to say he was rushing to the airport in order to get down to Warshington and solve the financial crisis.

Half way through the clip, Letterman busts Muttley sitting down to do an impromptu interview with Katie Couric.



Letterman disses Sarah Palin Anastasia Beaverhausen, too, implying she isn't capable of stepping up and filling in for Muttley on the campaign trail.

There's something fishy going on.

Just When You Thought You Were Free Of 'Nucular'

Honestly, I'm a pretty easy going guy. But when I hear President Bush say "nucular," it's like fingernails on a chalkboard, and I want to go all nuclear on his ass. What makes it even worse is that he knows it's wrong and says it anyway. Then again, that's completely in character for him, isn't it?

About a week ago, Mike reported that Anastasia Beaverhausen says nucular, too.

As if that isn't bad enough, Muttley keeps saying "Warshington." If I have to listen to Warshington and nucular for eight years, I'm going to go all apeshit on the "English is the official language of the United States" crowd.

'Road To Nowhere' Leads To Non-existent 'Bridge To Nowhere'

Want to know why your taxes are so high?

Alaska now has a Road to Nowhere going to what would have been the Bridge to Nowhere.

Alaska Gov. Anastasia Beaverhausen's Sarah Palin's transportation department has completed a $25 million gravel road leading to the site of a bridge that Palin, as John McCain's vice presidential candidate, now boasts that she stopped, so as to save taxpayers money. The road was built with federal tax dollars.

Ketchikan Mayor Bob Weinstein said the 3.2-mile road will be useful for road races, hunters and possibly future development. But with no bridge to serve it, that's probably about it.

"I think it will be good for recreational things like a 5K and a 10K," Weinstein said. "And instead of people walking through brush, it may be used for hunting in the area."

Great! A $25M hunting trail. Moose beware!

Muttley Throws Cox Under The Bus

Muttley's looking for a Wall Street scapegoat and he found one in my former Congressman from Irvine, CA.

John McCain, buffeted by criticism about his response to Wall Street's financial problems, said he would fire the SEC chairman and create a special trust to help strengthen weak institutions.

In all but calling for the firing of SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, McCain turned on a fellow Republican and former 17-year House member who served on committees overseeing investor protection and U.S. capital markets. President Bush appointed Cox in 2005.

My question is, "Why did it take a market crash and the road to an economic depression in order for Muttley to speak out?"

The Beaverhausen Chronicles: Earmarks

More lies from the Muttley/Beaverhausen/Shrub campaign. As reported in today's Wall Street Journal:

What Muttley/Beaverhausen Say
• Sen. John McCain said his running mate hadn't sought earmarks or special-interest spending from Congress, presenting her as a fiscal conservative. McCain said Gov. Palin shared his views and hasn't sought congressional earmarks. "Not as governor she hasn't," he said.
• The McCain campaign said that Palin's overall record is one of fiscal discipline. "Her record is cutting the number of earmark requests from the previous administration sizably," said McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds, and she has vetoed wasteful state spending.
• Gov. Palin herself suggested she no longer seeks earmarks for her state. "The abuse of earmarks, it's un-American, it's undemocratic, and it's not going to be accepted in a McCain-Palin administration. Earmark abuse will stop."
• The McCain campaign has also come under fire for saying on the stump and in TV ads that Gov. Palin killed the controversial "Bridge to Nowhere," a $223 million earmark linking the mainland to a sparsely populated island.

The Facts
• State records show Palin has asked U.S. taxpayers to fund $453 million in specific Alaska projects over the past two years. These projects include more than $130M in federal funds that would benefit Alaska's fishing industry, $9M to help Alaska oil companies, and $4.5M to upgrade an airport on a Bering Sea island that has a year-round population of less than 100.
• In the current fiscal year, she is seeking $197 million for 31 projects. In the prior year, she sought $256 million for dozens more projects ranging from research on rockfish and harbor-seal genetics to rural sanitation and obesity prevention.
• By comparison, her predecessor, Gov. Frank Murkowski, sought more than $350 million in his last year in office.
• Alaska's state government is among the wealthiest in the U.S. Flush with oil and gas royalties, it doesn't impose income or sales taxes. In fact, money flows the other way: Every man, woman and child this year got a check for $3,200.
• She supported the Bridge To Nowhere project initially and killed it after it was widely criticized and Congress allowed the state to use the funds for other projects.

So What About Senator Obama?
• Sen. Barack Obama requested a total of $860 million in earmarks in his Senate years. That doesn't include $78M for projects that were national in scope and had been requested by many lawmakers.
• Sen. Obama halted all earmark requests in fiscal 2009.

Using the same calculation that the McCain campaign uses, the total amount of earmarked dollars divided by the number of working days while each held office, Gov. Palin sought $980,000 per workday, compared with roughly $893,000 for Sen. Obama.

I guess this is where McCain's lack of computer knowledge comes into play. Everything, I mean everything, is available on the Internet. Plausible deniability is no longer a campaign strategy.

Read the complete article here.

Tina Fey Returns To SNL

In case you missed it...

"I can see Russia from my house!"

and

"Ask this one about dinosaurs!"

Fey has Beaverhausen down pat. Love it!